The Righteous ally in the other side of the Mediterranean

The right partner on the other shore of the Mediterranean

Meléndez López Teodulo

The beginning, in Tunisia, seemed to mark a difference with the tradition of military coups and authoritarian governments replacement by other authoritarian governments. Now lay a democratic claim and a demand for improved living conditions. Europe watched the events with his strange persistence in extraneous considerations, while the United States, a little more alert, began a process of interest that might well go to mediation and the preservation of old allies.

The spread to the neighbors perhaps made to look better through the window. The Egyptian crisis, particularly the dramatic fall of Hosni Mubarak for a street revolt that began with the iconic Tahrir Square, sparked American interest in an inevitable transition and, consequently, began to move the old parts of the faithful to preserve their interests in a country that had been the best ally in the difficult balance the Middle East.

The story is familiar, with its consequential killings in Yemen, Libya and Syria and with shaking in Morocco and Algeria, to a lesser extent, in Jordan and Bahrain. Corruption, autocracy, unemployment, lack of human dignity and no future for young people had been combined in a cocktail was producing accurate than the first great revolution of the century.

The Arabs, despised in their ability to mobilize internal and put into question their democratic capacities, were going on, before the astonished eyes over despots who had received blank checks of its Western allies, supposedly to keep out a uncertain Islamist threat which justified their outrages dictatorial allowed to remain on the banks of the western part of the world's big money in the accounts as confused dictator's property-specific and / or the State Regent. Excluded youth to put the victims came to shake off the corruption and political and social repression.

Given the evidence of a landslide analysts began looking for history, as the Algerian riots of 1988, crushed as an exceptional and circumstantial or remember that daily life in Morocco is very difficult, while the fall of Tunisia Ben Ali did see the over Arab armies powerful street population could shape their destiny, not without paying a high share of victims, but it did not matter, would be victims, but this time no one would kidnap the great revolt.

Somewhere had slipped a progressive approach to social issues, including the status of women. The technology had opened channels of the Internet and social networks were essential for the calls, and also mobile phones, and to put in the eyes of youth the illusion of another way of life. But television, like Bab al hara program (The door of the neighborhood) or transmissions of Al Jazeera.

Were combined, then the urban youth who understood the Islamic groups were mounted on the truck unstoppable democratic infected hosts and divided between those who owed allegiance to the old regimes and those who watched the eyes of young people and understood it all, more impoverished urban masses measured had nothing to lose. The uprising at any price was peremptory order issued by the confusion and uncertainty. Uncertainty is inherent to this type of historical shocks. We speak of Arab revolution without forgetting the differences from country to country, but without forgetting the obvious wire transmitter that unites all.

The old socialism embodied in a military leader or religious fanaticism were overcome by a democratic desire turned into the driving force. This is where Islamic countries in the eyes of disbelief begins to consider the possible identification between religion arbitrarily classified unfit for the exercise of freedom and the democratic path. It is therefore not by chance that young people gathered in the emblematic square in Cairo constantly cited Turkey. The fundamentalist side seemed defeated, even though the tottering dictators accused Al Qaeda of being behind the riots and still trying to sell to the West that version that allowed them to continue to receive the help stabilizing.

Obviously the important thing was, and is shaking the old dictatorial political forms, but the issue of new social and economic forms is pending. A regime can be overthrown within days, but the construction of a new reality replacement takes decades, so that the pertinent observation is that the Arab revolution is just beginning.

II

One must ask if she had been possible in the above table of international reality, that is, in the world still untouched by the profound transformations that process or northern? Africa is the most conspicuous of these changes, is also possible to ask whether it is both at once.

Remember the American intervention in Iraq, Afghanistan impossible situation and the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian crisis, from the point of view of the old military concept, which we must add the recent economic crisis. Certainly Obama's presidency marks a recognition of the new table through the abandonment of unilateral actions and to seek consensus and shared responsibility. The harsh diplomatic operation to involve NATO in the Libyan case is proof of that.

Certainly the Arab revolution came as a surprise to all the intelligence they expected no more than a violent repression and the maintenance in power of former dictators. We believe in the Egyptian case is more evident this mistake, because nobody thought that Mubarak could be driven from power in the way it turned out.

The second item to note is the heterogeneity of the forces that converged to make possible the revolt. Virtually all converged from Islamist movements should be incorporated understood without looking excessive role, students and youth in general, the middle classes, women, workers, soldiers and intellectuals. Of course, as has been mentioned ad nauseum, that the fatigue, lack of opportunities and a renewed desire for freedom were the engines, with the firm intention of overthrowing the old regime and to obtain a democratic system, one that only Time will in form and scope. It belongs to every movement of this kind suffer from uncertainties. Only the passage of time we can measure its real extent. There is undoubtedly a modification on the role of the Arab world in the emerging world. When events occur that we expect, we mean the fall of other regimes in the region, we ask if your new and insurgent influence will be exercised jointly or under the parameters of the States now existing. The presence or possible outbreak Islamic nationalist issues to be considered. Much will depend on the evolution of the Palestinian issue.

One ingredient to look at is the evolution of the ever-present oil. Rentier countries like Saudi Arabia have been almost immune to the revolt. It is obvious then that the Gulf oil should be a glance. There are non-existent political reforms, just a few hints to fit the new global economic reality. Bahrain and Oman are depleting their reserves, but overall it should be remembered that the Gulf population has a high youth population, the literacy rates are very high and that every day there are more college graduates. It is very difficult to believe that this population does not want drastic changes of government and ways of life. Fear of contagion was evident the Saudi military intervention in Bahrain.

Either way, the focal point of the Persian Gulf is Saudi Arabia, for its large oil reserves and production capacity to help, when necessary, to the stability of prices. The repeated calls via Twitter and Facebook have found partial responses, especially among the Shia population. The monarchy has responded with massive investments in infrastructure, education and health system. There, as in much of the Arab world, consider tribal power. Saudi Arabia remains the mystery of widespread embrace of the riots at the heart of the Gulf.

Frequently mentioned very good living conditions of the inhabitants of this region as effective antidote against the possibility of contagion. However, we doubt that it weighs more than the bare power to change things by large protests. The desire for involvement and interference in decision-making about their own destiny look and an unstoppable tide. The U.S. position is not unconditional support. Europe, in its traditional hesitation, must fully understand the role played in the initial transition to democracy in a special way with a United States are reminding Europeans who must have his eye on the developments. 45 percent of oil the world consumes comes from that region apparently immune called Persian Gulf. The very importance of oil to some extent determine his fate. Neither process has threatened Arab accomplished anything with a suspension of supply and if a cry is heard against the West has been by exception. The Arab world has not shown signs of breakage or distance or irreconcilable differences with this portion of the planet.

III The moments of brilliance in the Arab world seemed hidden in history. The domination of the Iberian Peninsula and the extension of Islamic-Arab civilization to the ends of Asia, the insurgency declines after the Greek, Roman and Persian, invaluable contribution to civilization.

The occupation under the Ottoman Empire, European colonialism as a result of the First World War, the dominant influence after the Second gringa. The Arab world just rise up in 1952 with the nationalism of Gamal Abdel Nasser once again making his voice booming in the world of mid-twentieth century. Since there appears to Gaddafi's Green Paper and the degeneration of hope in personal dictatorship. Again the Arab world declines and more heinous vices are installed in hereditary monarchy and socialist leaders turned into vulgar tyrants.

But the world is evolving and communication technology revolution, plus access to knowledge, making their effect on youth and there were questions and challenges. Since the information did not come exclusively from the controlled official media, prospects and complex extended falsely set this town began to crack. They were sentenced to the greed of kings or dictators who confuse the state's money with their own ill-gotten wealth, freedom and the possibility of human growth begins to push the rebirth of a consciousness buried in the past.

There is a revolution underway in the Arab world. Stacking causes of all kinds (historical, economic, climatic and social) has made possible. Has few months and its real results will take years to see, but anyone can be no doubt that the Arab peoples have taken up a role of history and of civilization can give large contributions. You do not have a past of this magnitude to wake up and fall back into slumber. Europe on the Mediterranean must observe from its faintness, the rebirth of one who is not your enemy but the ally just an alliance of civilizations that as the planet of the century.

teodulolopezm@yahoo.com